The little excerpt above was quoted from the 1st Edition AD&D Dungeon Masters Guide, page 110.
This basic chart takes that idea and removes the guess work to give DMs an easy-reference table for different difficulties and probabilities. This especially useful for Secondary Skills, but can and is intended for any situation that doesn't already have an officially described method of handling.
Generic Probability Chart
Additional Modifiers:
• +5% for being eligible for the Prime Requisite Experience Bonus
• +5% for each circumstantial benefit; ie top dollar equipment, safe or beneficial location, etc
• -10% for each circumstantial hazard
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